Europe Heatwave July 2026: Records, Deaths, and Climate Context

The Europe heatwave July 2026 arrived on the heels of the continent’s hottest June on record, extending a run of extreme heat that has already been linked to thousands of excess deaths. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), an intense heatwave across the second half of June pushed Western Europe to its warmest June since records began, and forecasters flagged a further bout of extreme heat emerging in early July. This explainer walks through the temperature records that were broken, what mortality data shows so far, and how climate change fits into the picture.

How Hot Did It Get

Western Europe recorded an average land surface temperature of 20.74°C for June 2026, 3.06°C above the 1991-2020 reference average and enough to surpass the previous record set just a year earlier, in June 2025. Europe as a whole logged its second-warmest June on record at 19.14°C, 1.78°C above average and narrowly behind June 2019’s 19.23°C. Globally, June 2026 was the second-warmest June on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.54°C, 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels.

England and France recorded their warmest June on record outright, while the United Kingdom as a whole, Germany, and the Netherlands logged their second-warmest June, with some individual locations breaking all-time temperature records. The heat extended offshore too: marine heatwaves developed across the western Mediterranean and along the Atlantic coasts, and the average sea surface temperature for the extra-polar ocean was the highest ever recorded for June, edging out the previous record from June 2024.

Timeline of the 2026 Heat Events

• May 21–30, 2026 — An unusually early and intense heatwave hits western Europe, with daily average temperatures in parts of western France, England, and Wales running more than 10°C above average.
• June 18–30, 2026 (peak June 22–28) — A second, more severe heatwave breaks monthly and all-time temperature records across several countries; Germany hits a national record of 41.7°C on June 28.
• Early July 2026 — Copernicus notes a further heatwave emerging, continuing the pattern of back-to-back extreme heat events.

The Human Toll: What Mortality Data Shows

The EuroMOMO mortality-monitoring network, backed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organization, estimated 14,260 excess deaths from all causes for the week ending June 28 across the roughly two dozen countries it covers — out of 84,583 total deaths recorded that week. Reporting based on the same EuroMOMO data, drawing on a pooled sample of 27 European countries, put the spike at 10,650 excess deaths for that week, with more than 9,000 of the deaths among people aged 65 and older. A separate analysis covering nine countries put the toll at least 12,000 for the same period.

National figures tell a similar story. Germany’s federal statistics office recorded roughly 5,780 to 7,900 excess deaths depending on the comparison baseline used, while the country’s disease control agency, the Robert Koch Institute, directly attributed 6,830 deaths to heat through early July. France logged 2,025 excess deaths for the week of June 22-28, and Belgium’s public health institute Sciensano recorded 1,747 excess deaths between June 18 and July 1 — the highest heatwave mortality in Belgian records dating back to 2000. Smaller but still notable tolls were recorded in the Netherlands (about 600), Switzerland (about 220), Luxembourg (23), and Spain, where the national mortality monitor MoMo attributed 610 deaths directly to heat, nearly two-thirds of them among people over 85.

In England and Wales, a joint study by Imperial College London, the UK Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated around 2,700 heat-related deaths across the May and June heatwaves combined, with about 42% of those deaths attributed specifically to the additional heat caused by human-driven climate change.

The Climate Change Link

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group concluded that the June 2026 heatwaves would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. That assessment fits a longer pattern Copernicus has tracked for years: eight of the nine warmest Junes on record for Europe have occurred since 2019, consistent with a decades-long warming trend that has become markedly more pronounced in recent years. Near-record ocean temperatures, partly linked to developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, also contributed to the intensity of the marine heatwaves recorded alongside the heat over land.

Limitations and Uncertainties

• EuroMOMO cautions that excess-mortality estimates take roughly four weeks to fully consolidate and are routinely revised as more national data arrives, which is why different reports citing the same week show figures ranging from about 10,000 to 14,260.
• Excess-mortality counts capture all-cause deaths above the seasonal norm, not deaths formally certified as heat-related, though scientists found no other major factor, such as a COVID-19 wave, that could explain the spike.
• Official national heat-attributed death tallies, including a forthcoming UK Health Security Agency estimate, were still pending at the time of writing and may revise these figures.
• This explainer is based on the most recent Copernicus monthly bulletin available (June 2026); comprehensive data specifically for the July 2026 heatwave had not yet been published in a monthly bulletin as of this writing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Was June 2026 the hottest month ever recorded in Europe?

Not overall. June 2026 was Europe’s second-warmest June on record, narrowly behind June 2019. But Western Europe specifically recorded its warmest June ever, and individual countries including England and France set outright June or all-time temperature records.

How many people died because of the heatwave?

Estimates vary because excess-mortality data takes weeks to consolidate. EuroMOMO put excess deaths at roughly 14,260 for the single worst week, June 22-28, across its full network; separate analyses using slightly different country samples reported figures of at least 10,000 to 12,000 for the same period.

Which countries were hit hardest?

Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom reported the largest excess-mortality spikes. Germany recorded an all-time national temperature high of 41.7°C on June 28, and Belgium logged its highest heatwave mortality since public health tracking began there in 2000.

Is this heatwave linked to climate change?

Yes. Scientists at World Weather Attribution concluded the June 2026 heatwaves would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change, and a separate Imperial College London-led study attributed about 42% of England and Wales’s heat deaths to the extra warming caused by climate change.

Did the extreme heat continue into July?

Copernicus noted a further heatwave emerging in early July 2026, following closely on the May and June events — part of what scientists describe as an increasingly frequent and intense pattern of heat extremes across the continent.

Bottom Line

Europe’s summer of 2026 has already produced two record-setting heatwaves and thousands of excess deaths before July even ended, with Copernicus data confirming the underlying warming trend and mortality networks documenting the human cost in near real time. With another heatwave emerging in early July, the final toll for the summer will likely climb further once national statistics agencies finish consolidating their figures in the coming weeks.

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